First published: Prospectmagazine.co.uk, 29/03/2017
Without a Brexit deal, we could find that we’ve walked off a cliff
The British government has now formally given notice under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of its intent to leave the European Union—the most important economic and international relations decision since the end of the second world war. After the nine months of post-referendum hiatus, Prime Minister Theresa May’s government now has to negotiate the terms of our exit from and future relationship with the EU, prevent the disintegration of the UK—especially now that Nicola Sturgeon has called for a second independence referendum—decide which laws to keep, modify or reject, and keep the economy out of recession while mitigating the adverse consequences of Brexit on living standards.
Nothing is pre-ordained, but the chances are high that it will be a hard Brexit or even a Wile E Coyote moment—that is, the UK will tumble out of the EU as off a cliff, without an agreement about a future relationship and possibly without an agreed divorce settlement. If that were to happen, then the economic outlook would be markedly worse, despite what many Brexit cheerleaders have been asserting without rhyme or reason….Read more: