Return of the Great Moderation?

 First published: Llewellyn Consulting, 6/06/2014

  • The great moderation was an ultimately costly illusion
  • Yet paradoxically, resolution of the crisis seems to be creating a second moderation
  • But if it is doing so, it is only by virtue of economic performance that is generally sub-par
  • The previous Great Moderation ended in great volatility: this one may well do so too

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  • US payrolls not gr8 for GDP re agg hours in Jan/Feb cf Q4, but empl/unempl data alone impressive.Bye bye 'patient'.Fed move in June done now

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession." Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph