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China’s Currency Policies Need an Overhaul

First published: Bloomberg Views, 10/01/2017 The irony of the yuan rally that took bears by surprise last week was that the surge came just days before China announced that its foreign currency reserves shrank by $41 billion in December. The stockpile is

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Posted in China Tagged with: , , ,

Good economic news—but beware of the “tail risks”

First published:, 4/01/2017 Things are looking up—for now It’s not for nothing that economics is sometimes called the dismal science. Yet it isn’t always true that economists are gloomy. Indeed, they aren’t gloomy at the moment. Compared with this

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Posted in Global Economy + Finance Tagged with: , , ,

If Trump means to start a trade war, China cannot afford to back down

First published: The Times, 31/12/2016 China’s new year, the Year of the Rooster, falls a few weeks later than in the west. According to astrologists, the configuration of elements suggests a year of disharmony and international conflict. What our calendar’s

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Posted in China, United States Tagged with: , ,

Trump just raised turned up the political temperature with China

13th December 2016 In an interview with Fox News over the weekend, the President-elect said he didn’t know why the US should be bound by the One China policy unless China was willing to do a deal with the US

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Posted in Viewpoints Tagged with: , , ,

If Trump declares a trade war, China will fight back

First published: CapX, 17/11/2016 Most Americans are watching out for how President-elect Trump proposes to govern at home and what he intends to do. The rest of us, while considering that, are also paying attention to what his presidency might

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Posted in China, United States Tagged with: , , , ,

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession." Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph