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China’s National People’s Congress: focus on Core Xi, not economic coherence

5th March 2017 China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is now sitting, and will last two weeks. It’s an annual event, attended by roughly 3000 delegates after a series of local and provincial meetings, and party rituals at which all the

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Posted in Viewpoints Tagged with: , , , ,

Trump’s Road to Trade Wars

1st March 2017 President Trump’s address to both Houses of Congress has been widely covered, and my own comments can be found here. The bottom line I drew was it was the same man talking economic nationalism and US sovereignty

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Posted in Viewpoints Tagged with: , , ,

China’s Currency Policies Need an Overhaul

First published: Bloomberg Views, 10/01/2017 The irony of the yuan rally that took bears by surprise last week was that the surge came just days before China announced that its foreign currency reserves shrank by $41 billion in December. The stockpile is

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Posted in China Tagged with: , , ,

Good economic news—but beware of the “tail risks”

First published:, 4/01/2017 Things are looking up—for now It’s not for nothing that economics is sometimes called the dismal science. Yet it isn’t always true that economists are gloomy. Indeed, they aren’t gloomy at the moment. Compared with this

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Posted in Global Economy + Finance Tagged with: , , ,

If Trump means to start a trade war, China cannot afford to back down

First published: The Times, 31/12/2016 China’s new year, the Year of the Rooster, falls a few weeks later than in the west. According to astrologists, the configuration of elements suggests a year of disharmony and international conflict. What our calendar’s

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Posted in China, United States Tagged with: , ,

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession." Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph