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Can Merkel and Trump work together?

First published: CapX, 16/03/2017 Stormy weather has shifted Angela Merkel’s trip to see the US President to tomorrow; it provides the perfect metaphor for German-US relations. There are several contentious foreign policy issues, some of which have gone off the boil

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Posted in Europe + UK, United States Tagged with: , , ,

Trump’s Congress speech: The same man but in softer colours

First published:, 1/03/2017 The details were predictably hazy, but a policy picture is gradually emerging Yesterday evening, President Donald Trump gave his first address to both Houses of Congress. It marked a significant change in tone from the “American

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Posted in United States Tagged with: , ,

Trump’s attempt to roll back financial regulation deserves to fail

First published:, 13/02/2017 Anything more than a tweak to Dodd-Frank would be risky Around nine years ago, the US investment bank Bear Stearns was in trouble, finding increasing reluctance on the part of markets to provide the liquidity it

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Posted in United States Tagged with: , , ,

UK-US trade deal cheerleading will be drowned out by complexity

First published:, 27/01/2017 Today’s Trump-May press conference contained nothing of substance on the matter—and no wonder Standing next to President Donald Trump, Theresa May spoke for rather longer than her host at their first press conference on Friday. The

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Posted in Europe + UK, United States Tagged with: , ,

Three factors behind a looming US-China trade war

First published: Nikkei Asian Review, 26/01/2017 Early indications suggest tit-for-tat actions could escalate into trade war Over a matter of days, the world has been treated to a curious spectacle. On the battlefield of globalization, in which trade has become

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Posted in China, United States Tagged with: , , ,

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession." Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph