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UK-US trade deal cheerleading will be drowned out by complexity

First published:, 27/01/2017 Today’s Trump-May press conference contained nothing of substance on the matter—and no wonder Standing next to President Donald Trump, Theresa May spoke for rather longer than her host at their first press conference on Friday. The

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Posted in Europe + UK, United States Tagged with: , ,

Three factors behind a looming US-China trade war

First published: Nikkei Asian Review, 26/01/2017 Early indications suggest tit-for-tat actions could escalate into trade war Over a matter of days, the world has been treated to a curious spectacle. On the battlefield of globalization, in which trade has become

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Posted in China, United States Tagged with: , , ,

Nine Economic Lessons from 2016: the Full Monty

19th December 2016 To finish off in what turned out to be a remarkable year, no year in review in the conventional sense, and no bog-standard, bank-type economic outlook 2017. Rather, and in keeping with the time of year, here

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Posted in Viewpoints Tagged with: , , , , ,

Nine economic lessons from 2016

First published:, 19/12/2016 In keeping with the time of year, here are nine lessons (but no carols) we’ve learned about the economy over the past 12 month Financial crises have deep, long-lasting effects Had there been no financial crisis

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Posted in Global Economy + Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,

Trump just raised turned up the political temperature with China

13th December 2016 In an interview with Fox News over the weekend, the President-elect said he didn’t know why the US should be bound by the One China policy unless China was willing to do a deal with the US

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Posted in Viewpoints Tagged with: , , ,

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"George Magnus does not look like a prophet. Yet this is the man widely acknowledged to have predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession." Josephine Moulds, The Daily Telegraph